Arctic–MENA–Asia Trade Triangle: New Corridors, New Competitions
Smrithi B
Research Intern
The global trade map is undertaking an ultimate recasting, where the Arctic-MENA-Asia Trade Triangle is becoming a core pivot in a disaggregated geopolitical-economic whole. It is a fluid trade route linking Arctic, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia and is likely to cut transit times, diversify supply chains and cause new strategic alliances – although it poses acute climate and security issues.
Why the Arctic, and Why Now?
Climate change is opening the Arctic at a very high rate. Due to the melt of sea ice, new shipping routes like the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Transpolar Route are getting more accessible, which guarantees the potential of 40 percent less transit time between Europe and East Asia than the established routes, like the Suez Canal. The transformation is an unexpected opportunity to the countries of Asia and MENA who have found substitutes to the congested/ geopolitically-sensitive choke-points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait.
India’s Strategic Stakes
As a very energy-dependent country, India is taking up the role of a principal stakeholder in this new triangle. In May 2025, India had been importing 1.96 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia, representing close to 38 per cent of the imports. This flow of energy could be greatly boosted by the time and cost in transportation using countries such as the Arctic, whose maritime routes, such as the NSR, can greatly improve this transportation. The import of discounted Russian oil helped India save 25 billion dollars in 2023-24, and the optimisation of Arctic routes would only enhance its energy security and logistics efficiency.
The 2022 Aropahika Policy of India is based on a multidimensional policy, focused on scientific study, environmental care, and collaborating with other nations, also forming opportunities for economic interaction, such as investing in Arctic-capable infrastructure and maritime logistics.
Mundra, Vizhinjam and Mumbai ports have the potential of becoming transhipment centres of Arctic and Indian Ocean trade, particularly when fitted with LNG bunkering facilities, ice-class vessel support and cold-chain logistics to support perishables and pharmaceutical exports leading rank based Indian exports with FY 2023-24 of over INR 320.2 billion.
MENA’s Pivot Northward
Arctic shipping routes present a new avenue to the MENA (Qatar, UAE) to access the energy markets in Asia. Qatar was reported to export 9.3 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2023, with more than 80 percent of it going to Asia, and the UAE exported 0.7 billion cubic feet per day. Such nations are considering the NSR as an alternative to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, thus improving the delivery speed and the geopolitical risks.
An existing major logistics hub like the Jebel Ali Port in the UAE could be used as a relay point in the transportation of goods destined to the Arctic, since the MENA region is a major energy exporter to Asia. Joint infrastructure, such as the creation of specialised Arctic bunkering services, might make ports in the Gulf, India, and Sri Lanka become the key facilitators of the new route.
New Trade Flows and Emerging Players
While Arctic engagement today focuses on crude oil and LNG, the potential for containerized trade, cold-chain perishables, and high-value exports is growing. India’s ambition to become a global export hub for auto components, electronics, seafood, and pharmaceuticals aligns with Arctic shipping advantages, shorter delivery times and lower costs.
Beyond India and the UAE, several strategic players are actively shaping the trade triangle:
- China: Declares itself a “near-Arctic state” and is investing in Arctic infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative.
- South Korea and Japan: Developing ice-class ships and advancing Arctic research.
- Nordic nations like Norway and Iceland are leveraging geography and Arctic expertise to enhance connectivity and innovation.
Total Bilateral trade between India and Norway has been reaching INR 1.2 billion in FY 2023-24, following the cooperation in maritime energy and renewable energy. The India-EFTA TEPA in 2024 also eases the path to closer trade relationships with the Arctic-proximate countries.
Security and Governance Challenges
Despite its promise, the Arctic–MENA–Asia triangle introduces complex security risks. The Arctic’s harsh environment demands specialised vessels and rescue capabilities. Melting ice also increases the risk of accidents, oil spills, and environmental damage.
The Arctic is a geopolitically disputed region. This is because Russia, with a claim of control of a large part of the NSR, is opposed by nations such as Canada and the U.S that favour multilateral control. Maritime competition will also increase as the Arctic traffic expands, necessitating a new security framework and governance systems.
Upon the traditional sea lines, we have already witnessed lapses in the form of the ever-given blockage in the Suez Canal, rising tension in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The Arctic offers a chance at avoiding these chokepoints on the condition that rules-based governance and infrastructure resiliency do the same.
Climate Paradox
Ironically, climate change is allowing the trade in the Arctic region, but also endangering the delicate ecosystem of the area. Unregulated increased shipping can upset indigenous populations, bring in invasive species and increase carbon emissions. Although shorter routes might help cut down global emissions, arctic warming is a dangerous global feedback loop.
Balancing economic gains with environmental protection will require inclusive decision-making and multilateral cooperation, especially involving local and indigenous stakeholders.
Rethinking Cooperation
To realize the potential of the Arctic–MENA–Asia Triangle, new forms of collaboration must emerge:
- Infrastructure investment: Shared funding and technology for Arctic-capable ports, vessels, and refuelling services.
- Governance and regulation: Harmonized policies for safety, environmental standards, and equitable access.
- Maritime security alliances: Cooperation among Arctic, MENA, and Asian powers to secure new trade lanes.
- Energy transition partnerships: Arctic–MENA–Asia synergies on renewable energy, carbon-neutral logistics, and sustainable development.
Existing frameworks, like the Arctic Council, and bilateral agreements (e.g., India-Norway, Russia-China) offer a foundation for expanded trade and climate cooperation. India, as an Observer State, should use its role to push for equitable access and sustainable growth.
What’s Next for India?
India must now align its Arctic Policy with trade, energy, and strategic priorities. Next steps include:
- Investing in ice-class vessels and Arctic-ready port infrastructure
- Expanding cold-chain logistics for exports
- Participating in Arctic governance around maritime law and sustainability
- Strengthening partnerships with Russia (energy), Norway (shipping), and UAE (logistics)
As Arctic routes become commercially viable, India must evolve from a passive observer to a strategic stakeholder, leveraging its scientific presence into economic and geopolitical advantage.
The Arctic–MENA–Asia Trade Triangle is more than a trade innovation—it’s a symbol of 21st-century geopolitics and climate-driven adaptation. As the world’s trade patterns shift, this corridor offers both promise and peril. The next decade will be crucial in shaping whether this emerging axis supports inclusive growth and sustainable development or becomes a flashpoint for competition and ecological harm. Global collaboration—between governments, corporations, and communities—will determine whether this new trade frontier is a bridge to shared prosperity or another source of tension in an already fragmented world.